A version of this article was Published in Rail Magazine, issue 999
The small village of Handsacre has recently become the focus of attention after the Prime Minister announced at the Conservative Party Conference on the 4th of October that he was cancelling phase 2 of HS2 to Crewe and Manchester. Now the parish of Handsacre and Armitage, which is more often associated with the manufacture of bathroom fixtures has another claim to fame, being the likely permanent end point for HS2.
It was always intended that HS2 would join the WCML at Handsacre, however, it was assumed that this would be the first of three connections that would allow trains to leave the new line and head north on the existing railway. The other two were to be located to the south of Crewe and Golborne to the North of Warrington.
Before Phase 2 was split into phases 2a and 2b it was proposed that HS2 services would leave the high-speed line at Handsacre and continue on the existing network to Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow before the completion of Phase 2 to Manchester and Golborne.
The plan was changed in 2014, when it was decided to build HS2 to Crewe first (Phase 2a), then continue the line to Manchester and Golborne (Phase 2b). After the re-phasing, it was proposed that Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow could each be served by one HS2 service per hour to London Euston (later, further revised to terminate temporarily at Old Oak Common) until the completion of phase 2a to Crewe.
Site of Handsacre Junction, 2023
Once phase 2a opened, Manchester would have been served by three trains per hour, Liverpool two and Glasgow one train per hour, joining HS2 just south of Crewe. After which two additional services were proposed. One originating in Macclesfield calling at Stoke and Stafford, before joining HS2 at Handsacre utilising the capacity released by Phase 2a. The other would start at Lancaster and call at Preston, Wigan and Warrington Bank Quay before joining a service from Liverpool at Crewe to form a single 400m set (2x 200m). This service would then join the WCML at the connection south of Crewe.
Now though, after Rishi Sunak’s announcement, trains will join the WCML at Handsacre indefinitely, as he has cancelled arguably the most transformative section of HS2. HS2 Phase 1 will still provide some capacity gains between Rugby and London Euston, with benefits for commuters south of Birmingham, however, there will be no additional capacity freed up between Rugby and Manchester.
The PM's decision may also potentially create a severe bottleneck between Handsacre and Colwich, which could have implications for the WCML north of Lichfield, affecting both passenger and freight services.
HS2 - WCML Spur
To further complicate matters Handsacre Junction requires two separate junctions to work, with a flyover taking a down line over the core section (that would later have become Phase 2a), to the spur which would join the WCML. Now though, this first junction is no longer technically required, but work on the junction has already begun before being paused in March this year.
If the grade-separated junction from HS2 to the WCML spur is no longer required then it may be the case that changes to the Hybrid Bill for Phase 1 will be required, which could mean the bill would have to go back to Parliament. The best outcome would be that a stub be left so that HS2 could potentially continue north at some point in the future.
For the moment however, no one seems to know what will happen and those working within the DfT and HS2 Ltd are only now starting to understand what the implications of the PM's decision will be. When asked for comment, a spokesperson for HS2 Ltd said “We understand the Government’s ambition is to run HS2 trains via the Handscare Link to serve destinations in the North. We await formal notification as to whether the Government intends to repeal the Phase 2a Act, and therefore whether any amendment would be required to the Phase One Act powers for this train service specification to be delivered”.
For now, the sites between Lichfield and Handsacre have been mothballed after all construction north of Streethay (Lichfield) was paused. Since then, the most northerly work that has taken place was the construction of a bridge taking the WCML over HS2 at Fulfen Wood, which was moved into place in July. The Balfour Beatty VINCI joint venture delivering this part of the route is continuing work on the bridge that will take the A38 over HS2, but workers have been stood down between Streethay and Handsacre.
The situation at Handsacre was further complicated when the Phase 2a bill was deposited, as the WCML connection was redesigned so that the HS2 tracks would connect to the Up-Down slows on the WCML. The original proposal for Phase 1 would have seen the HS2 tracks join the UP-Down fasts, which would have been more costly and complicated but would have maximised capacity.
Handsacre original junction design
This change wasn’t as important with the plans for Phase 2a taking HS2 to Crewe and therefore reducing the burden on Handsacre. But without phase 2a, will provide a constraint which will impact capacity on the WCML.
Updated junction design
Professor McNaughton highlighted the issue during a Transport Select Committee HS2 update on the 16th of November, during which he suggested that the WCML connection will have to be redesigned if HS2 is to terminate at Handsacre permanently. When Jack Brereton, MP for Stoke-on-Trent asked “You are advocating a redesign of Handsacre?" Professor McNaughton replied, “I think it is inevitable and an unfortunate consequence, and then bang goes some of the money that you might have saved from not doing 2a.”
Prior to that exchange Professor McNaughton alarmingly said “Unless something has fundamentally changed in the laws of physics since I last looked at it, you cannot deliver the whole of the HS2 phase 1 service on to the slow lines without actually cancelling your freight trains.”
So it seems clear that significant design change will be required, to one or both of the junctions, from what would have been Phase 2a and the spur to the WCML at Handsacre. But even if the WCML connection is reverted to the original more efficient design, it would still be the case that HS2 trains will join the WCML at a section which is already constrained. Just a few miles north of Handsacre is Colwich Junction, which is a flat junction where the Stone and Colwich line meets the WCML from Stafford. This junction funnels Avanti services from the North and LNR services from Crewe down the Trent Valley line. Being at-grade means that capacity is inherently constrained and that’s before the introduction of additional HS2 services.
It is important to note that current Avanti services will largely be replaced by HS2 services, however, it was always proposed that some “classic services” would be retained. The classic services would not only retain or improve local and regional connectivity but would also free up seating capacity for passengers on the WCML. An indicative service pattern within the Phase 1 business case (which was updated in 2020), shows an hourly service from Manchester calling at Rugby and Milton Keynes, in addition to the three proposed HS2 services per hour.
Stopping at Milton Keynes not only benefits Milton Keynes commuters but also maintains connectivity between North and the largest settlement in Buckinghamshire which has a population of 260,000. Milton Keynes is also home to head offices for several large international and national companies, and from 2025 will provide improved links to Bicester and Oxford via East West Rail
Not only would the PM's decision limit capacity on the WCML, it will fail to provide any meaningful capacity for passengers from the North. In fact seating capacity could be reduced unless the current order for 54, 200m long trains is modified. The expected capacity of the HS2 units that will be delivered by a Hitachi/Alstom Joint Venture would only be 550 seats. This wasn’t a problem with phase 2 providing Manchester Piccadilly with the ability to accommodate 400m long (2x 200m), 1,100 seat sets. However, without phase 2 the existing platforms could only accommodate 200m long units. If so this would lead to a reduction in seating capacity when compared to the 265m long, 11 car Class 390 Pendolinos, which have a capacity of 589.
Capacity comparison, 200m long HS2 trains vs existing Avanti Class 390
Even if the order is modified to deliver say 250m long HS2 units, that would only provide a marginal gain, versus the capacity provided currently. A potential for a 294 seat per hour gain from Manchester to London is hardly transformation, not when compared with phase 2, which would have provided up to 1550 additional seats per hour. This reduction also applies to Glasgow, which would only be served by one HS2 service per hour, instead of the 2tph that would have been provided with the completion of the Golborne Link. Liverpool could potentially still see two HS2 services per hour, but it is unclear if the additional service would be a straight swap for the proposed Avanti service calling at Liverpool South Parkway using Class 807s.
It's too early to tell what the implication of the PM's decision will be, but it seems patently clear that if nothing else, reliability will suffer by trying to squeeze more capacity out of the existing railway North of Handsacre and that the proposed capacity gains provide by HS2 will be marginal at best.
