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forgive the grammar, this article was based on a script for a Youtube video
Should we operate
155mph (250km/h) capable Class 390 Pendolinos on HS2? The short
answer, in my opinion, is no. However, it is a complicated issue that
deserves further investigation.
The renowned and
well-respected railway veteran Chris Gibb has proposed that Class
390s should be fitted with new traction systems and bogies so they
can operate in regular service at 155mph in non-tilt mode on HS2.
The
primary benefit is capacity from Glasgow and Manchester to
London. But it is also claimed that the Glasgow to London
journey time will be 17 minutes slower via HS2 than the existing
service.
Firstly I have to agree
with the point about capacity, In fact, I was one of the first people
to demonstrate that HS2 in its current form could lead to a reduction
in seating capacity from Manchester and Glasgow into London. However,
it is important to stipulate seating capacity.
Why is this the case?
Because the new HS2 trains on order will be 200m long and were
intended to work in multiple to Birmingham Curzon St and the new HS2
platforms at Manchester Piccadilly, so would be 400m long during peak
hours, providing up to 1100 seats. But with no new HS2
platforms at Manchester there will be no room at Piccadilly for 400m
long trains
Artist impress of the rolling stock intended for HS2. Source HS2 Ltd
Even if HS2 were built
in full to Golborne, Glasgow would still have been served by 200m HS2
sets but would have benefited from an increased frequency, leading to
an overall capacity gain. But unfortunately curtailing HS2 means no
more trains can operate between Glasgow and Euston that already do
currently.
The main issue is that
a 265m long, 11 car Pendolinos have 589 seats, whereas the proposed
HS2 units will have up to 550 seats per 200m long sets. So there
could be an overall reduction in seating capacity on some routes
HS2 units vs Class 390 comparison
However, once HS2 opens
to Handsacre there may still be potential to operate a so-called
“classic” between Manchester and London, calling at Milton
Keynes. So Manchester could see up to 4 trains per hour to London,
comprised of 3 HS2 and 1 classic. This means there could still be an
overall capacity gain and more choice for passengers.
Glasgow is a bit more
challenging, as capacity is limited between Crewe, Warrington and Wigan
and on the northern section of WCML. So without HS2 to Golborne, no
more trains can operate than currently do, so technically there could
be a reduction in seating capacity from Glasgow. At least for the
direct Glasgow to London via HS2 service, which would replace the
existing direct service.
Liverpool to London
will still see an overall increase with the service increased to 2tph
with HS2 to Handsacre. Even taking into account the proposed
additional Avanti service from Liverpool to London. However, Gibb
suggests that one service per hour should continue to use the WCML
via Milton Keynes, but use the new HS2 trains. This idea possibly may
have some merit, at least until HS2 is completed to Euston.
The report also
recommends the existing two Cross Country services per hour from
Manchester should replaced by 200m long HS2 service from Manchester
to Birmingham. This would provide a capacity uplift between
Manchester and Birmingham and the Chris claims would reduce the
journey from 90 to 50 minutes
Although the current
services stop at Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford and
Wolverhampton and takes 57 minutes just to get to Stafford. So is
there a suggestion that some stops would be missed out between
Manchester and Birmingham?
This proposal also removes the direct
connectivity from Manchester with the South and South West, with XC
services continuing to Bristol and Bournemouth. Although it should be
pointed out that some journeys such as those to Reading could switch
to HS2 and GWR, with passengers changing trains at Old Oak Common.
Manchester to
Birmingham connectivity is an issue I have continually tried to
raise, and I feel it has been repeatedly ignored within the HS2
debate, despite time savings between the UK's two largest regional
cities that would have been transformational. But HS2 would have
retained the existing service and supplemented it with new services
between the UK's two largest regional cities. So, as it stands I do
not think we should be replacing the existing services with HS2
services. Not least because the time-saving claiming would not be
achievable without removing stops between Manchester and Birmingham.
Manchester to
Birmingham
Current: 90 minutes
HS2 to Manchester: 49
minutes
The other significant
proposal is to de-scope Euston to just 2, 400m HS2 platforms, to be
used for the Birmingham services. Beyond that I'm not sure what Gibb
is suggesting, he makes reference to Caledonian Sleeper platforms,
but with no connection from HS2 to the existing station possible,
they seem irrelative.
I'm working on the
basis that he means to continue to build some new platforms at
Euston, but only build 2, 400m long platforms. With new shorter
platforms which would be served by Class 390s and 200m long HS2
units. But I can't imagine that building shorter platforms would save
a significant amount of money, so I'm not sure what the benefit would
be.
It is worth pointing
out that the current design for Euston Tunnel and the approach would
not allow for a connection from HS2 to the existing platforms simply
because of the lack of space available. In fact, the HS2 platforms
will be lower than the existing ones due to the lack of space, to get
from the tunnel portal to the station throat.
Layout of Euston approach, source HS2 Ltd
Why do I oppose this
plan? I think Richard Bowker put it best, during the interview that
Chris Gibb did with Green Signals. Richard said “The critics will
say you're letting the politicians off the hook” [Green Signals
episode 35]. This was said when Sunak was in power and
Richard appeared to be playing devil's advocate. But I do still agree
with the sentiment.
In essence, it begs the
question, why should any Government continue to develop HS2 if we can
just operate some Pendolinos along the route and call it a day? I
know Gibb does make further suggestions about Northern Powerhouse
Rail and Handsacre to Crewe. But it could be all too tempting just to
use slower trains on HS2 and perhaps carry out some upgrades on the
WCML.
Gibb's proposal also
means that Birmingham's services will have to run slower and could
operate a maximum of 186mph, instead of between 200mph (320km/h) and
225mph (360km/h). It wouldn't be practical or possible to operate
trains with a speed differential ranging from 45mph to 70mph and
maintain the headway. Although I appreciate HS2 is primarily about
capacity, but it doesn't seem right to cut the benefits for
Birmingham, just so we can operate Class 390 on HS2.
Gibb also said during
the Green Signals interview that he is “challenging” the industry
to see if it's possible to re-engineer Class 390s. This seems to be a
change from the tone of the report, which makes it seem as if it is
already possible.
Perhaps instead we
should be challenging the industry to find a cost-effective and
practical way to modify the HS2 rolling stock order and instead
order 250m or 260m long HS2 sets, which would have more capacity than
Class 390s despite being a similar length. I'm not saying all units,
but perhaps 8, 10 to 12, to operate peak Manchester and Glasgow services
would be sufficient?
I understand there may
also be an issue with the Washwood Heath Depot and the maintenance
hall may not be long enough to accommodate longer sets. But perhaps
the units could be maintained in existing WCML depots with the
installation of new equipment?
Washwood Heath plan. Source HS2 Ltd
Surely modifying the HS2 rolling stock order and creating provision for maintenance would be no more expensive or technically challenging than fitting new traction equipment to 20-year-old trains? Which will be close to 30 years old by the time HS2 opens to Handsacre.
I also have to question
the “up to 17 minutes longer” claim between Glasgow and London,
to which I wasn't able to get a satisfactory answer to what this
means. As far as I can tell, it most certainly will not mean services
from Glasgow to London via HS2 would be 17 minutes slower than today.
As even the most pessimistic time penalty for non-tilting trains
between Glasgow and Handsacre would be more than made up for with the
time saving between Handsacre and London.
And plans to lift the
non-tilt speed on the WCML are already well in advance and a special
speed limit can be applied on straight sections of the WCML to allow
no-tilting multiple units to travel at 125mph, rather than 110mph,
further reducing the time penalty.
Raising the MU speed to
125mph on straight sections of the northern WCML would benefit
Transpennine Express services served by Class 397s. In addition,
raising the non-tilt MU speed is already planned for Avanti services
operated by Class 805s (which do not tilt) between Crewe and London.
Avanti's new Class 805 units do not tilt. But the journey time between Chester and Euston will not be significantly longer once the MU speed is raised.
Also, as far as I can
tell, there may still be scope for a Lancaster to Euston service
within the current HS2 plan, This service would have stopped at
Preston, Wigan and Warrington, then joined with a Liverpool HS2
service at Crewe. This means it will only occupy a single path
between Crewe and Handsacre.
This could mean that
the Glasgow service could make fewer stops on the WCML, further
reducing the overall journey time. This service would have been
introduced only after HS2 was completed to Crewe but before the
completion of HS2 to Golborne. So would have operated over the
constrained section between Crewe and Wigan.
HS2 and Classic services, potential
I imagine capacity for
this service would be released by running the Glasgow service
non-stop south of Preston. But I'm not sure if there would be scope
to run the Lancaster service to and from Glasgow instead.
What I'm trying to say
is, that there are other options and this proposal could be seen as
defeatest. But I think ultimately there may be little point in
running the proposed full HS2 timetable until HS2 is open to Euston.
So this gives the Government time to reconsider its decision and come
up with a better plan than operating 25 to 35-year-old trains at
155mph on HS2.
Until HS2 opens to
Euston, it may be better to operate limited service from Manchester
to Old Oak Common, perhaps, 2 HS2 trains per hour to Old Oak, with 2
classic services to Euston. Similarly, Liverpool to London could be 1
HS2 and 1 Classic service per hour
Admittedly this leaves
a question about Glasgow, to which I don't have a satisfactory
answer. Perhaps an alternating HS2 and Classic service, with 260m
long HS2 trains. This would provide Glasgow with a connection to Old
Oak Common, whilst maintaining capacity into Euston.
HS2 + Classic service, potential prior to opening of HS2 to Euston
Terminating at Old Oak Common is far from ideal and HS2 must be built to Euston. But there will be benefits of changing trains at Old Oak, with connections via the Elizabeth Line to central London and Heathrow and the Reading and the South West via GWR services. So there would be a benefit of providing services from the North to Old Oak Common
I know I'm just a
solitary railway commentator and Chris has decades of experience has
the support of many within the rail industry and should be said has
my full respect. But myself and others, including industry experts I
have spoken to privately disagree with this proposal, as pragmatic as
it may seem on the surface.
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